What if the war between Israel and Iran were not just another war in the Middle East, but a global dividing line? A geopolitical, identity, and civilizational shift?
As the simmering tensions of the past twenty years explode into direct confrontation, the shockwave extends far beyond the regional context. The post-war period, whether short or long, conventional or hybrid, will reshape the world.
The end of strategic ambiguity
Since 1979, the Iranian regime has advanced in disguise: support for terrorism, armed proxies, double talk. The open war with Israel marks the end of this duplicity. No one will be able to claim that Hezbollah is a "resistance movement," that Hamas is a "popular expression," or that Iran's nuclear program is purely "civil."
The conflict forces each state, each actor, to choose sides. Those who refuse to do so will disqualify themselves politically.
The Great Awakening of the Sunni Arab Powers
The confrontation reveals a truth that has been hidden for too long: it is not Israel that the Arab states fear, it is Iranian expansionism.
Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Egypt, and Jordan will each break their silence in their own way. Either to discreetly support Israel or to protect themselves from the regional destabilization caused by Shiite Iran. The Abraham Process, far from being buried, could strengthen behind the scenes.
The moral dislocation of the West
The conflict will expose the internal fractures in Europe and America. Between those who support Israel in the name of democracy and the right to self-defense, and those who, consumed by wokeness, anti-Zionism, or fear, will sink into cowardly neutrality or ideological complicity.
In this post-war period, the West will have to choose: remain faithful to its principles or capitulate to the forces of confusion.
The recomposition of global alliances
Russia and China will take advantage of the chaos. Russia to further weaken NATO and the EU; China to pose as an alternative mediator. But this strategy of "false neutrality" could backfire: overly visible support for Iran will isolate them from the free world.
India, Africa, and Latin America will be watching. Their position will be the diplomatic battleground of the post-conflict world.
Israel transformed, Iran weakened, but not dead
Israel will emerge from this war more united, but also more alone. It may have destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities, but it will have paid a heavy price—human, political, and moral. It will have to reinvent itself: a strong state, but a just state; a defensive democracy, but not so defensive that it forgets its universal vocation.
Iran, for its part, will enter a phase of internal turbulence. The shaken mullahs' regime will face Iranian youth, a population weary of fanaticism and isolation.
The “Persian Spring” is not for tomorrow, but the seed will have been sown.
Towards a new world identity order
This conflict will reveal what many refused to admit: the new geopolitics is no longer merely economic or military. It is about identity. It pits worldviews against each other. On the one hand, the sovereignty of peoples, freedom of conscience, and respect for fundamental rights. On the other, religious messianism, moral totalitarianism, and hatred of the universal.
Israel, in this context, is the test. The laboratory. The scapegoat for some, the model of resilience for others.
Conclusion HaTikva, or reconstruction through lucidity
What's coming will not be a return to normal. The world before is dead. The world after is uncertain, fragile, but bears an essential truth: peace is not born of denial, but of the courage to name the enemy, to defend what is worthwhile, and to build what is to come.
This is HaTikva. Not passive hope, but active hope. The emergence of a new, responsible political thought, based on memory and turned toward the future.
I turn toward this future
Am Israel haï
V grumelin